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Glacier FarmMedia –– Canadian canola ending shares will seemingly be tighter by the shut of the upcoming 2024/25 advertising 12 months, whereas the wheat carryout ought to rise, in keeping with up to date provide/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Meals Canada (AAFC), launched March 19.
Factoring up to date acreage estimates from Statistics Canada, AAFC lowered their name for Canadian canola manufacturing in 2024/25 to 18.100 million tonnes, from 18.365 million in February. That compares with 18.328 million tonnes within the present 2023/24 advertising 12 months. Projected exports had been left unchanged at 7.000 million tonnes for 2023/24 and at 7.700 million within the new crop 12 months. With solely minor revisions to the home utilization projections, canola ending shares at the moment are forecast to tighten to 1.650 million tonnes for 2024/25, from a projected 2.000 million in 2023/24.
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For wheat, complete manufacturing was estimated at 34.593 million tonnes by the federal government company. That was up by 667,000 tonnes from the February estimate and nicely above the 31.954 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canadian wheat ending shares are forecast to rise to 4.400 million tonnes by the tip of July 2025, which might be up by 200,000 tonnes from the February estimate and compares with the projected 2023/24 wheat carryout of three.550 million tonnes.
AAFC March estimates for Canadian main crops provide and demand (in million metric tonnes):
Grains and oilseeds |
|||||||
Manufacturing | Exports | ||||||
2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
All wheat | 34.593 | 33.926 | 31.954 | 24.600 | 24.350 | 23.450 | |
Durum | 5.655 | 5.435 | 4.045 | 4.500 | 4.350 | 3.200 | |
Barley | 9.496 | 9.280 | 8.896 | 2.750 | 2.750 | 2.750 | |
Corn | 14.929 | 14.310 | 15.076 | 1.650 | 1.650 | 1.850 | |
Oats | 3.510 | 3.705 | 2.636 | 2.450 | 2.550 | 2.450 | |
Canola | 18.100 | 18.365 | 18.328 | 7.700 | 7.700 | 7.000 | |
Flaxseed | 0.260 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | |
Soybeans | 6.900 | 6.950 | 6.981 | 4.950 | 4.950 | 4.900 | |
TOTAL | 88.254 | 87.296 | 84.654 | 44.533 | 44.383 | 42.847 | |
Home Utilization | Ending Shares | ||||||
2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
All wheat | 9.268 | 9.051 | 8.591 | 4.400 | 4.200 | 3.550 | |
Durum | 0.880 | 0.860 | 0.829 | 0.750 | 0.700 | 0.450 | |
Barley | 6.476 | 6.510 | 5.935 | 1.300 | 1.050 | 1.000 | |
Corn | 15.129 | 14.810 | 15.653 | 2.200 | 1.900 | 1.900 | |
Oats | 1.080 | 1.025 | 1.086 | 0.400 | 0.550 | 0.400 | |
Canola | 10.850 | 10.815 | 11.084 | 1.650 | 1.950 | 2.000 | |
Flaxseed | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.132 | 0.050 | 0.035 | 0.120 | |
Soybeans | 2.446 | 2.450 | 2.482 | 0.375 | 0.421 | 0.421 | |
TOTAL | 45.628 | 45.090 | 45.312 | 10.440 | 10.171 | 9.461 | |
Pulse and Particular Crops |
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Manufacturing | Exports | ||||||
2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
Dry peas | 3.000 | 3.100 | 2.609 | 2.400 | 2.300 | 2.400 | |
Lentils | 2.130 | 2.200 | 1.671 | 1.800 | 1.800 | 1.600 | |
Dry beans | 0.355 | 0.330 | 0.339 | 0.335 | 0.335 | 0.390 | |
Chickpeas | 0.225 | 0.210 | 0.142 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.135 | |
Mustard | 0.180 | 0.170 | 0.171 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.110 | |
Canaryseed | 0.155 | 0.145 | 0.112 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.125 | |
Sunflower | 0.073 | 0.078 | 0.092 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.025 | |
TOTAL | 6.118 | 6.233 | 5.137 | 4.950 | 4.850 | 4.785 | |
Home Utilization | Ending Shares | ||||||
2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
Dry peas | 0.600 | 0.700 | 0.576 | 0.240 | 0.440 | 0.210 | |
Lentils | 0.265 | 0.265 | 0.213 | 0.240 | 0.310 | 0.100 | |
Dry beans | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.074 | 0.050 | 0.025 | 0.030 | |
Chickpeas | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.065 | 0.050 | 0.005 | |
Mustard | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.043 | 0.100 | 0.090 | 0.065 | |
Canaryseed | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.030 | |
Sunflower | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.185 | 0.190 | 0.180 | |
TOTAL | 1.135 | 1.235 | 1.064 | 0.920 | 1.135 | 0.620 |
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